For the past 16 years, the stock market has been essentially flat and has moved primarily sideways. This is markedly a different looking graph over a 16 year period than other similar stretches of time since the stock market came into existence (other than the Great Depression).
Interest rates are near zero, which has virtually never been the case over our country's economic history: when use of other people's assets costs nothing. And now the federal reserve chairman Janet Yellen is not ruling out NEGATIVE interest rates: charging people to use their money. How is that even possible?
In the big picture, it's not possible. The artificially low rates right now are a political creation cobbled together by collaboration between governments and banks. How long this will hold, nobody is certain, but most reasonable folk tend to think that interest rates simply have to go up at some point.
Enter Donald J. Trump. The general election is less than a year away, and so is the inauguration of the next president. Recall that when Barry was inaugurated, both in 2009 and 2013, the stock market fell hundreds of points each time. Stock markets do not like socialists, for obvious reasons.
And the stock markets started to tank once it became clear that Barry was likely to win the White House: stock markets are forward-looking, and the Big Money didn't like what it was seeing in a young man taking control of our nation who had not a lick of business experience, nor any inclination whatsoever towards solid fiscal discipline. The Big Money saw a tax and spend liberal from a mile away, and the stock market has been in the tank pretty much ever since.
The moment it becomes clear that The Donald is favored to occupy the Oval Office, just watch what the stock market does at that point: it will be a month or so prior to the election, as polls tend to get things right regarding winners and losers (but not always), and the Big Money will make its move at that point, perhaps late summer, 2016.
If you are so inclined to catch the coat tails of Big Money, simply buy equity index ETF's (exchange traded funds) that mirror the S&P 500 and Nasdaq - ticker symbols SPY and QQQ. After the first 9 months in office, 'The Donald Effect' on Wall Street should take the Dow Jones 30 Industrial average from its current 16,500 level to perhaps 22,500 - a swing of a positive 36%.
Accordingly an investment of $10,000 in either or both of these equities should yield a profit (also called a capital gain, something liberals consider evil) of $3,600 in a year. Of course, when the Donald takes office, he will propose cutting capital gains tax to zero, and that money becomes free and clear.
Try getting that kind of return out of a CD, there, grampa. Of course, that eye-popping return is predicated upon the election of Donald J. Trump to the presidency of the United States of America.
Take that to the bank.
Laying-Up in Edinburgh - The Digs I'm laying up in Edinburgh, getting adjusted to the time change from US Pacific Time Zone to GMT, before the party starts. So far, so good. 9:42 a...
8 hours ago